This model is similar to the modified exponential trend model in that it assumes that the underlying trend is gradually approaching a saturation level, specified by the user. The main difference here is the ability of this model to effectively deal with the whole of a typical product life cycle from the launch/rapid growth stage through to saturation level.

Hence, the model may be used at any pre-decline stage of a product's life cycle, assuming that at least 12 months of historical demand data are available. The model uses the classical S-shaped curve to model the underlying trend.

- IFP will obtain a trend curve of overall best fit to the adjusted historical data, taking into account the specified saturation level
- This trend curve is then projected into the future
- All selected historical periods are given equal weight
- Forecast values are then obtained by multiplying the projected trend value by the average seasonal factor for each month

## Saturation Level

Saturation level must be entered in terms of average units per month, e.g. a saturation level of 100,000 units per month would be equivalent to an annual saturation level of 1,200,000 units per annum. Note that the demand for a particular month may exceed the specified saturation level due to seasonal effects.

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